Week 9 Picks

Winners in Bold

Green Bay at Kansas City (-1 opening; now at -2.5: moved due to heavy action on Chiefs)
This is one of the funny games where the average fan automatically picks the Packers, while the professional gamblers back the Chiefs. Let's take a closer look at what both are thinking. First, the fans look at the Packers and see a 6-1 team that's on a roll with Brett Favre playing like the 3-time MVP of 1995-97. Meanwhile, the bettors look at the Chiefs and see a team that's playing at home, has won four of its last five games, and perhaps most significantly, has never lost to Brett Favre. In fact, KC is the only team in the NFL that Favre has yet to beat (0-3 career). Consequently, oddsmakers are begging for anyone to lay some loot on the Packers to hedge the book. dp says bet the house. This is the rare game where the conventional wisdom of the average fan is correct; simply put, the bookies are overthinking this one. The Pack is on one of those streaks where just enough happens to help them win each week, and it will continue against the Chiefs.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)
With the Falcon's release of NT Grady Jackson, Frank Gore should find lots of running room this week. The 49ers will look to use Gore often to control the clock and wear down the Atlanta D. Alex Smith can bounce back with some play action passes downfield.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1)
Cleveland could score a bunch of points and still lose with their porous defense, but they should have just enough of a cushion to hold on for the win.

Cincy at Buffalo (-3 opening; now it's a coinflip)
Well, while dp is finally giving up on the Bungles after getting burned (again) for backing them last week. It seems the rest of America is still seduced by the playmaking trio of QB Carson Palmer and WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (who has scored a touchdown in seven straight games) because heavy early week betting action on Cincy has moved the point spread a full field goal. The layman would figure that because Buffalo has gone from a 3-point favorite to a 1-point underdog in some sportsbooks, the smart money is on the Bengals, but in reality the opposite is true. Vegas oddsmakers are practically begging bettors to put some loot down on Buffalo, and dp agrees with them. Buffalo is the pick.

Denver at Detroit (-3)
Denver is still reeling from their heartbreaking home loss in OT to Green Bay on Monday night. With a short week of preparation, they won't have enough in the tank to knock off a tough Lions squad.