Tonight: Red Sox to go up 1-0; Rockies to go up 1-0; Diamondbacks to go up 1-0; all to win series.
In California baseball this season, it's better to be divine than merely pious, as Anaheim's cherubs of Los Angeles are in and San Diego's priests are out of the playoffs. In postseason baseball this October, it's better to be lucky than good, as the tough-luck Padres discovered on Monday in the wild card tiebreaker against the Rockies.
With an 8-6 lead in the bottom of the 13th and all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman on the mound to close out the win, the Padres could taste the champagne of the imminent post-game celebration. Yet the Rockies capped an improbable 9-8 comeback victory when, despite not crossing home plate, Colorado's Matt Holliday was fortuitously called safe with the game-winning run. Replays showed that after Holliday tagged from third base on Jamey Carroll’s shallow fly to right and slid headfirst into home, catcher Michael Barrett blocked Holliday’s left hand from touching the plate. Regardless, umpire Tim McClelland signaled safe, ending San Diego’s season in dramatic walk-off fashion. Check out the replay below.
With the postseason heating up this week, here’s a preview of each Divisional Playoff series. Matchups are evaluated logically (Head), emotionally (Heart), and instinctively (Gut). [Editor’s note: all predictions were made before Thursday’s games]
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Rockies-Phillies: Colorado leads series 1-0
Head: The Phillies have the best starter in the series in Cole Hamels and the NL's most potent offense, led by the majors' best-hitting infield with SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Chase Utley, and 1B Ryan Howard, all of whom are MVP candidates. With CF Aaron Rowand and LF Pat Burrell having career years, it would seem that the Phillies have too much firepower for the Rockies to contain. Yet Jeff Francis did just this in Wednesday’s Game 1, allowing only 4 hits and 2 runs to out-duel Hamels and give Colorado a 4-2 victory.
Heart: In spring training Jimmy Rollins predicted the Phillies would win the NL East. Until the last day of the regular season, no one believed him. Rollins believed and, through the force of his will, pushed the Phillies all year long to get there. That's an MVP. Plus, the Phillies made the latest, greatest comeback in baseball history to beat out the Mets, whom they trailed by seven games on Sept. 12. That’s heart.
Gut: But all logic aside, in the end, how can you bet against a team that's won 15 of 16 games? Even though Philly also stormed back to make the playoffs, these Rockies just seem to have an extra special something. They made it this far only because Matt Holliday proved that you actually can score without hitting home. That kind of good fortune is priceless. Weigh the overwhelming evidence favoring the Phillies, then flick, let it go. As any tournament poker player knows, in the short term- like a 5-game series- it's good to be the guy on a rush. Colorado will ride it all the way to the World Series. Rockies win series in 4.
Cubs-Diamondbacks: Arizona leads series 1-0
Head: The Diamondbacks, despite having the best record in the NL at 90-72, were actually outscored 732-712 for the season. Credit manager Bob Melvin for making all the right moves to win a lot of close games. He’s handled his pitching staff like a wizard, as was the case again in Wednesday’s Game 1, when he preserved ace Brandon Webb’s 3-1 win by getting two scoreless innings of relief from Brandon Lyon and Jose Valverde. The Cubs also rely on excellent pitching, with the NL's second-best ERA of 4.04. Yet Webb, last year's Cy Young,, who will definitely win again in Game 4, meaning the Cubs will have to win Games 2, 3, and 5 to advance.
Heart: It's a no-brainer to pull for the Cubs. Since 1908, from the curse of the goat to the meddling of Steve Bartman, it's been nothing but heartache for Wrigley's faithful. No one deserves to win more than Cubs fans. The Red Sox finally got their title in ’04 after 86 years, and the cross-town White Sox got theirs in ’05 after 88 years, so why can't the Cubs join them this year, right?
Gut: Wrong. The Cubs never win. Ever. Not in 99 years. Usually in Texas Hold ‘Em, no matter how bad you're beat on the flop, you have that one-out miracle left in the deck, perhaps that fourth ace, or a royal flush filler, or runner-runner to a straight. Unfortunately, sometimes you're the Cubs, who, after a century of heartbreak, are drawing dead. Diamondbacks win series in 5.
Check back Thursday for dp's American League preview.
