With the postseason heating up this week, here’s a preview of each Divisional Playoff series. Matchups are evaluated logically (Head), emotionally (Heart), and instinctively (Gut). [dp's note: all predictions were made before Thursday’s games]
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Yankees-Indians: Game 1 at 6:30 ET Thursday
Head: Conventional wisdom favors the Yankees, who beat the Indians all six times they played this year and boast a vast advantage in postseason experience. Plus the Yankees feature the scariest batting order this side of Murderer’s Row, leading the majors in nearly all batting statistics and outscoring second-best Philly by nearly half a run per game. The Indians have some great young players like C Victor Martinez, CF Grady Sizemore, and DH Travis Hafner, but even this trio can’t compare to the likes of C Jorge Posada, LF Hideki Matsui, SS Derek Jeter, and 3B Alex Rodriguez.
Heart: Still, everyone outside New York loves to hate the Yankees, making Cleveland the sentimental choice. Cleveland did post the best record in the AL, and does have the best two starters in the series in C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21 ERA) and Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06 ERA). Starting at home at Jacobs Field, these two could quite possibly stake the Indians to a huge 2-0 series lead.
Gut: In playoff baseball, much like poker, it’s best to be holding pocket aces. Indeed, great pitching beats great hitting in October. Sure, the Yankees have the better closer in Mariano Rivera versus Cleveland’s shaky Joe Borowski (45 saves but a 5.07 ERA), but this edge won’t matter if the Yankees starters can’t keep it close against Sabathia and Carmona in the early going. Indians win series in 5.
Angels-Red Sox: Boston leads series 1-0
Head: After Wednesday’s 4-0 victory, Josh Beckett now has 3 shutouts and a 1.74 ERA in 6 career postseason starts. The smart money's on him to win again in Game 4, meaning Boston only has to win one other game to move on the ALCS. With two of those chances at Fenway, where Anaheim is just 2-6 this year, it doesn’t look good for the Angels. Furthermore, with Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis fully recovered, Boston’s lineup is in top form, while Angels CF Gary Matthews is still out and RF Vladimir Guerrero is only able to DH on account of his bad elbow.
Heart: Sorry, Californians, even in Los Angeles there are more of you in the Red Sox Nation than in the Disney Kingdom. For proof, witness the teams’ only series played in Anaheim in early August: Sox fans arrived early to tailgate in the parking lot, while Angels fans finally settled into their seats by the fourth inning before stretching and leaving in the seventh. Finally, it’s hard to go on about the Red Sox without mentioning reigning MVP David Ortiz. Big Papi is probably the most beloved player in all of baseball, and he seems to have recovered his knack for delivering clutch hits.
Gut: Theo Epstein built this team around power pitching. That’s what enabled Boston to beat out the Yankees for the AL East crown, and that’s what will launch them toward postseason success. With dazzling rookie Dice-K to complement big-game pitchers Beckett and Curt Schilling, plus closer Jonathan Papelbon waiting in the wings to lockdown the ninth, it’s going to be tough for anyone to beat the Sox in a best-of-7 series, much less a best-of-5. Red Sox win series in 4.
AL Championship Series: Sox beat Indians in 6
NLCS: Rockies beat D-backs in 7
World Series: Sox beat Rockies in 7
