Week 4 NFL Upset Specials

My big upset special for Week 4: Detroit will prevail at home against the field-goal favorite Bears. While twice as many fans are picking the Bears to win in NFL Picks Pools all across the country, trust dp: the Bears' secondary is just too banged up to contain the Lions' explosive receiving corps, plus DT Tommie Harris and OLB Lance Briggs, two key cogs in shutting down the run game, are hurt as well. Throw in the fact that Lions RB Kevin Jones should be close to full speed this week, plus the fact that Chicago made a midweek QB switch (which actually does help them as Brian Griese couldn't possibly play worse than Rex Grossman), and this game is the Lions for the taking. If Jon Kitna can avoid costly turnovers, the Lions will put up some points and improve to 3-1.


In another NFC North domed showdown, Green Bay visits Minnesota. Historically, Brett Favre hasn't played well in domes, posting a career 20-25 record, and he's struggled particularly in the HHH Metrodome, where he's just 5-10. Yet looking closer behind the numbers, dp discovered that Favre has actually won 4 of 7 contests in the Metrodome in the 1990s. Plus, he's playing great so far this year to lead the Packers to three straight wins. The only question is, how soon will Favre throw a touchdown pass to hit 421 and set the all-time record? dp sets the over-under for this milestone at 11:17 left in the second quarter. The scoring won't stop there, and the Pack remains undefeated with a 31-21 win.

Finally, as dp doesn't feel good about any of the other underdogs' chances this week, here's some predictions for the three games with the narrowest favorites: I'm sticking with Seattle again this week to squeak one out at San Francisco, Philly to subdue New York at Giants Stadium, and, in a game experts are wary to pick because of Jake Delhomme's injury status, I'm riding Carolina, with Delhomme or David Carr at QB, to eke out a home win over the Bucs. (I would wait until Saturday night for an injury update before picking this last one, but dp and Lady FLICK are off to Seattle for a wedding this weekend. Check back Monday for the Week 4 recap.)