Coming off a crazy NFL Week 2 in which the underdogs went 12-3-1 against the point spread, I've decided that a) no one, "experts" and Vegas handicappers included, knows anything about the NFL this early in the season, and b) I should be able to uncover a couple of upset specials in Week 3.You may wonder, "Where are dp's picks for the first two weeks? Why is he just starting now?" dp humbly points out that Brett Favre didn't get his first start until Week 3 in 1992, and the three-time MVP has done pretty well since then. (Also, dp was born late: expected as a Christmas Day bonus baby, dp straggled into this world 10 days later on January 4, unable even to muster a timely New Years arrival. dp has been offering lame excuses for chronic tardiness ever since.)
Speaking of Favre, I'm going with the Packers over the Chargers (5-point favorite) in this week's biggest upset special. Even though LT is poised for a monster game, Green Bay traditionally struggles against good 3-4 defenses like San Diego's, WR James "Joyce" Jones pulled a hamstring in practice on Thursday, and Favre himself still doesn't know what to make of a largely untested 2-0 team, I'm backing the Pack at home in Lambeau because I want to believe the Pack is back in 2007.
Call me a shameless homer, but there is at least a bit more to it than that. First, don't worry about Green Bay's lengthy injury report. Consider it mere gamesmanship by coach Mike McCarthy. Of the 17 players listed, 13 are probable and almost certain to play, including WR James Jones. While Jones' production may suffer, it won't be because of his supposedly tender hamstring. More importantly, look for #2 WR Greg Jennings to return from his own hamstring injury and supplant Jones in the starting lineup, relegating Jones to the 3rd receiver role. A healthy Jennings gives Favre a vertical threat downfield and draws some attention away from Donald Driver. I think Jennings' return will spark the Packers passing attack. Dare I say Favre throws 4 TDs to break Dan Marino's all-time record? Maybe not, but the Packers will win outright and pay big on the money line (bet $100 to win $240).
I'm also picking the Dolphins over the Jets in another upset, albeit in a much less attractive matchup of 0-2 teams. I think this is one of those games that the oddsmakers have no idea what to do with; hence, the Jets are a field-goal favorite simply because they are at home. Even though QB Chad Pennington is 6-1 lifetime against Miami and Miami MLB Zach Thomas is probably out due to the lingering effects of a concussion suffered last week against the Cowboys, the Dolphins will do just enough to not lose. Ronnie Brown will run wild through the Jets' porous run defense, churning out first downs, eating up the clock, and keeping Miami's defense, which is itself second-worst against the run this year, off the field.
Finally, here's a few more picks in the week's toughest games to predict: Rams over the Bucs, Seattle sneaks past Cincy, and, in a game where dp wishes both teams could lose, the Cowboys beat the Bears in an NFC Sunday night showdown.
2 comments:
Damn DP, that packers prediction was darn pretty. With the Pack's big pay on the money line I might've even came out ahead if I didn't follow your advice on St. Louie as well. It looks like in addition to some green bay esp from dp we can also look forward to the occational dopey prediction. If there was one thing you were dead par on, though, it's that no one knows a damn penny's worth about the NFL this soon. Nice post.
Wise Man that DP-pick Packers pretty pfrequently this year-especially at home. Don't pick against Packer pFavre when the opponents pack the box and give up the short Packer passing game. Jennings in the slot-short throw in the slant- long run-big touchdown. Packers post perfect victory.
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