Week 7 NFL Recap: Perspective on the Art of Picking

Courtesy of Indy's thorough 29-7 thumping of the Jags, dp salvaged a mediocre round of picks in Week 7, going 3-3 in his bid to select six road winners. Not quite the donkey prognosticator, dp merely broke even in picking the week's toughest games.

But that's the nature of this prediction business. dp's priorities for making five or six picks each week are plain and simple:

1) Remember that dp only picks outright winners; he doesn't mess around with the point spread because he's philosophically opposed to what it represents. True competitors only care if they won or lost. For example, Green Bay is a 3-point underdog at Denver in Week 8. Suppose the Pack, trailing 28-20 with a minute left, drives down the field for a touchdown, but then fails to score the game-tying two-point conversion and loses 28-26. Well, Green Bay may have covered the spread and pleased a few heartless gamblers, but no one in the Packer locker room or any self-respecting cheesehead is happy with the loss. (By the way, as the astute reader has no doubt surmised, Green Bay over Denver will be dp's first upset special for Week 8.)

2) dp scours each week's schedule for upset specials, going against the grain to select underdogs. If he can't find five upsets, he then picks the games with the lowest point spreads and hence the most uncertainty. In fact, other than Indy's Monday night blowout, the games dp picked this week were decided by one score or less: Baltimore lost 19-14 at Buffalo (incorrect), Tampa lost 23-16 at Detroit (incorrect), Tennessee escaped with a 38-36 win at Houston (correct), Kansas City won a 12-10 squeaker at Oakland (correct), and Philly lost 31-28 at Denver (incorrect) on a last-second field goal. All of these games went down to the wire. dp could have just as easily gone 1-5 or 5-1 with a few (un)lucky breaks.

In short, dp's choices are risky business. It's easy to only back the big favorites and rack up a superficially impressive record. Actually, while dp is 15-12 (55.6% accurate) in his documented upset special and coin flip games, he's 52-24 (68.4% accurate) in all other games in 2007. But I don't bother writing about these ones because the relatively big favorites generally win.

To put dp's performance in perspective, compare his 67-36 (65% accurate) overall season record to some other benchmarks. In ESPN's weekly SportsNation poll, voters have chosen the winner 59% of the time, compiling a 61-42 record. Meanwhile, ESPN's AccuScore computer projection has picked 64 winners for 62% accuracy. Finally, of ESPN's panel of 9 NFL experts, only Mark Schlereth (69 winners picked) tops dp. With the season not yet halfway completed, we'll see where it all ends up, but dp, like original Flicksters Johnny Cash and Tom Petty, won't back down.




Week 7: 3-3 (10-4 overall)
Season: 15-12 (67-36 overall)

Dustin Pedroia Powers Red Sox to World Series: dp's 2007 American League Awards

American League Champions

AL Rookie of the Year- Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: .317 BA, .822 OPS, 86 runs
Ladies and gentlemen, dp devotedly presents another DP, Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia, as your American League Rookie of the Year. Pedroia batted .317 and provided excellent defense, displaying vast range and a knack for the spectacular at second base. If there were any doubters out there who were tempted to vote for Florida's Delmon Young (whose OPS was nearly 100 points lower than Pedroia's) or a pitcher like Dice-K or Joba Chamberlain, Pedroia's clutch performance in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, an 11-2 Boston victory over Cleveland, sealed the deal. Leading off the bottom of the first, Pedroia singled and later scored the game's first run. Pedroia has excelled in setting the table for the Sox, scoring eight runs in the ALCS, but he himself had zero RBIs through six games. Well, only until Sunday, when Pedroia got five RBIs in two innings in Sunday's Game 7. In the seventh inning, he broke open a 3-2 game with a huge 2-run bomb over the Green Monster off Rafael Betancourt, who had given up zero runs through 8 2/3 postseason innings until that point. Then in the eighth, Pedroia rocked Betancourt again, this time with a bases-clearing 3-run double. Dustin Pedroia, we really like to knooow ya! Kevin Youkilis followed with his own 2-run jack over the Monster to push the lead to 11-2 and totally crush Cleveland's hopes. Jonathan Papelbon recorded a six-out save for the first time in his career, aided by spectacular catches by Jacob Ellsbury and Coco Crisp, who ended the game by robbing Casey Blake of extra bases to send the Sox on to face the Colorado Rockies in the World Series.

What an amazing team victory in this series for the Sox. Slots 1-9 in the lineup all contributed about as evenly as is realistically possible in a seven-game series. In fact, dp struggled to decide upon the ALCS MVP. With his .345 BA and Game 7 heroics, Pedroia merited consideration, but so did Manny, who hit .409 with 2 HRs and 10 RBIs, and Youkilis, who hit .500 with 3 HRs and 7 RBIs, and Mike Lowell, who batted .333 with 8 RBIs, and JD Drew, who hit .360 and ripped the game-breaking grand slam in Game 6 off Fausto Carmona, and of course usual suspect David Ortiz, who scored seven runs and posted a .966 OPS.

With this wealth of production, dp was still waffling when Josh Beckett received the MVP. Duh. Beckett posted a stingy 1.93 ERA with 18 Ks in 14 innings to win both Game 1 and Game 5.
AL Cy Young- Josh Beckett, Red Sox:
20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 Ks
















Ladies and gentlemen, your AL Cy Young, Josh Beckett. Making menthol-smoking, scruffy skater dirtbags everywhere proud, Beckett utilized a lethal mix of power pitching and pinpoint control (a rare Clemens-Maddux hybrid) to become the majors' only 20-game winner. Throw in a grade-A post-season legacy (2003 World Series MVP with Florida; 5-2 with a 1.78 ERA and three shutouts in eight career starts) that includes three dominating wins this October, and the 26 year old looks to be a good bet to keep adding more hardware to his trophy case. Beckett is good for at least two more World Series victories and very well may repeat as MVP in helping the Sox fulfill dp's perfect post-season predictions.

Check out ESPN.com's sweet 10 question World Series poll to see how America views Red Sox Nation versus Rocktoberfest: POLL

AL MVP- Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: .314, 54 HR, 156 RBIs, 143 runs
Sometimes the MVP is a guy who singularly outperforms everyone else in the league by a wide margin. Sometimes the MVP is a guy who single-handedly carries his team on his back into the playoffs. Once in a while, the MVP is both guys, like A-Rod this year. A-Rod batted .314 and led the majors with 54 home runs, 143 runs, 156 RBIs, .645 SLG, and 1.067 OPS. His ridiculous output paced the Yankees' second-half charge to make the playoffs. Magglio Ordonez hit .363 with 139 RBIs for the Tigers, but he picked the wrong season to have a career year. Rodriguez picked the right year to max out, as he has the right to opt out of his contract and potentially sign a $300 million deal as a free agent. Whether he returns to New York is one of the big baseball questions to be settled after the conclusion of the World Series.

AL Comeback Player of the Year- Carlos Pena, Devil Rays: 46 HR, 121 RBIs, 1.038 OPS
In another no-brainer, Carlos Pena is hands-down the 2007 AL comeback player of the year. If the D-Rays were a bit better, Pena would be a legitimate MVP candidate. After appearing in only 18 games for Boston in 2006, he rebounded in a big way in 2007, batting .282 with 46 HR, 121 RBI, 99 runs, 103 BB, and an outstanding 1.038 OPS. What an amazing turnaround for a career .252 hitter who hit more than 20 homers in a season just once before 2007. What a sleeper for lucky fantasy baseball managers who stole him late in their drafts.

AL Manager of the Year- Eric Wedge, Indians: 96-66, 1st in Central Division
Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, and Terry Francona all deserve congratulations in leading their teams to the playoffs, but then again, the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox all enjoy perennially high payrolls and high expectations. In other words, back in spring training these teams were supposed to make the playoffs, while the Indians looked to be fourth behind the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins in the AL Central. For expertly guiding a young team to within one game of the World Series, Eric Wedge (pictured with Indians GM Mark Shapiro) wins the award for top AL manager in 2007. At least one fan in Cleveland appreciates the job the Indians have done this year.

Check back Tuesday for dp's 2007 National League awards.

Week 7 Picks: Flick Six Road Warriors

dp takes the double secret dirty dog dare to pick only road winners in Week 7. Most gambling experts say this is the donkey pinning the tail on the NFL schedule, but dp, like LL below, is doing it, and doing it, and doing it well (with three road dogs). Doing it, and doing it, and doing it well (with three road faves).

That's right, dude, mark it "6." In the first frame, notch "3" slight road underdogs- Tampa Bay at Detroit, Tennessee at Houston, and Kansas City at Oakland- three winners, good as gold.

And in the second frame, mark "3" road favorites- Baltimore at Buffalo, Pittsburgh at Denver Sunday night, and Indy at Jacksonville in the game of the week Monday night- 3 more gold strikes.

To commemorate the Risky Six in Week 7, dp, he of the perpertual free High Five, is supersizing an extra 20% to produce an even 6-fingered, mutant-ninja-turtled, on-the-road-winning High Six.

So FLICKsters, be sure to flick an extra digit in your hand jives this week. That's right y'all: FLICK SIX.

FLICKsport Poll: Who win will the World Series?

The Rockies, peaking on a 21-1 run, are in. Cleveland, leading Boston 3 games to 1 in the ALCS, is close. (In other words, the Sox got 'em right where they want 'em.)

FLICKsters, who do you think will prevail in the fall classic?

Who will win the World Series?
Rockies
Indians
Red Sox
Poll starter: dp See Results

Answers to Life's Biggest Questions

Check out this great clip of "crazy sports scenarios" brought to life by writer Todd Gallagher. If you've ever wondered how much of a head start you would need in order to beat an Olympic champion in a sprint, or if you could convert a sumo wrestler to an NFL player, you will find your answers here.



Check out Todd's book, Andy Roddick Beat Me With a Frying Pan, for more strange encounters of the sporting kind and more answers to questions like these: Can I beat Andy Roddick in tennis if he plays with a frying pan? Do professional darts throwers make great beer pong partners? Why don't NHL teams employ the absurdly fat goalies who simply cover the entire net with their flesh?

Yo flicksters, do you have any questions of your own for the sequel?

NFL Week 6 Recap

Thanks to the Giants' Monday night 31-10 dismantling of the Falcons, dp turned in a season-best 4-2 mark in Week 6 picks. Granted, the Titans upset special didn't quite materialize. And the Chincinatti Bungles blew it again in Kansas City, losing 27-20 to drop to 1-4.


As Michael Vick knows, when you play with underdogs, you're bound to git bit in da butt now and again, but dp otherwise definitely proved to be downright prophetic.

dp breathed a deep sigh of relief after Charles Woodson's 57-yard scoop and score gave the Packers a 17-14 victory over the Redskins. Coming off a bye week spent dissecting 5 games of Green Bay film, the Redskins unleashed a great defensive game plan designed to stop Brett Favre. First, to prevent the efficient, quick-hitting short passes Mike McCarthy favors, the Skins rolled up cornerbacks Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, and Carlos Rogers to play tight man-to-man coverage on Packers WRs Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. With his outside options jammed at the line of scrimmage, Favre couldn't throw the quick slants, outs, and hitches the Packers have exploited for great gain all year. Second, Washington blitzed often, gambling that with Favre's receivers tied up at the snap, the 'Skins could sack him or force him to throw before anyone came open downfield. It worked about as well as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could expect, as Favre didn't have a touchdown pass and served up two interceptions. Luckily, Woodson justified his expensive contract with a single game-breaking play. Strike the Heisman, C-Wood! Take that arm, and FLICK, just let it go....



Despite Green Bay's sputtering offense, dp thinks the Pack will utilize the bye week to rest, recover, regroup, and reload. McCarthy and Favre will be able to plot some new looks and come out with a reinvigorated offense in Week 8. Tellingly, the Packers adjusted at halftime by planning to throw deep and make the Skins pay for their aggressive pass coverage. Unfortunately, safety Sean Taylor picked off Favre's deep pass on the Packers' first 3rd quarter drive. dp actually felt relatively good when Favre threw his second interception. On a counterstrike option designed to expose the 'Skins aggressive press coverage, Favre pump-faked a quick slant to Jones, who then burst to the outside past a badly burned corner. Unfortunately, rather than lasering a 20-yard line drive pass, Favre fluttered a 40-yard floater, giving Taylor enough time to move across the field to snatch his second leaping pick. dp is confident that Favre will smooth out these and other new wrinkles and rebound with a great Week 8 performance on Monday night in Denver.


New England is hotter than Gisele Bundchen on a runway in Paris after Sunday's 41-27 FLICKing of the Cowboys in Big D. With a career-best 5 TD passes against Dallas to extend his NFL-leading total to a record 21 through six games, Tom Brady is hitting his receivers like they were supermodels- that is to say, in stride with great frequency of endzone penetration.

Seriously, at 6-0 and boasting a 230-92 total point differential, Belichick's cheaters are threatening to go unbeaten this year. The only way the Pats' lovefest gets broken up is if Brady gets sacked and buried by a wild pack of steaming A-list divas. Who knows, perhaps Gisele actually will intercept Bridget's baby....
Finally, in a less photogenic game, Philly defeated the Jets 16-9 to move to 2-3 (and 9-0 in games following a bye week under Andy Reid.) dp is once again Doctor Predictor, already off and looking for five Week 7 winners.

Week 6: 4-2
Season: 12-9

College Football Midseason Report: Aughtoberfest for California Sports Fans

We are officially in the midst of the time students across the country know simply as "midterms." Likewise, the first BCS rankings, college football's midterm report card, were released today.

BCS Ring Game

Taking stock of the California sports scene, former teacher dp finds failure everywhere. It’s been a brutal month. The A’s, Giants, and Dodgers missed the post-season completely, the Padres were eliminated by the Rockies in the wild card tiebreaker, and the Angels were unceremoniously swept by the Red Sox in the Divisional Series. Worse still for football fans, UCLA, USC, and Cal have all recently endured appalling losses that damaged their BCS dreams.

First, riding high at 2-0 and ranked #11 in the country on Sept. 15, UCLA got trounced 44-6 by a Utah team that was winless at the time and still possesses a losing record in the mighty Mountain West Conference. Worse still, on Oct. 6 the Bruins travelled to 0-5 Notre Dame and were thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 loss. Notwithstanding these two black eyes, UCLA is in second place at 3-0 in the Pacific-10 and may statistically have a chance to win the conference, but with upcoming games against #12 Cal, undefeated Pac-10 leader #8 Arizona St., #10 Oregon, and #14 USC, the Bruins are bound to take a few more blows to the chin and topple further down the standings.

Astoundingly, USC’s season was also spoiled on Oct. 6. Pete Carroll’s juggernaut, which was a 41-point favorite against lowly Stanford, suffered the biggest upset in college football history in losing 24-23 at home in the Coliseum to Jim Harbaugh’s geeks. The Cardinal, who at 1-3 in conference play (2-4 overall) have yet to win again in the Pacific-10, somehow tamed the Trojan horse despite the fact that quarterback Tavita Pritchard entered the game having thrown all of three passes in his collegiate career. The Trojans are battling through a slew of injuries that have forced 11 starters to miss games yet remain in a three-way tie for third in the Pac-10. Up next for the Trojans? The (meekly) Fighting Irish of notorious shame.

Finally, Cal visits the Rose Bowl to face UCLA this Saturday and looks to rebound from its own crushing defeat last week, when the Golden Bears dropped a 31-28 heartbreaker at home to Oregon State. Entering the game undefeated and ranked #2 in the country, Cal stood to move into the top spot in light of #1 LSU’s triple-overtime loss to Kentucky, but clock mismanagement in the final seconds cost Cal a chance to kick a field goal and force overtime.

With all the craziness across campus gridirons this fall, it’s likely that a one-loss team like Cal or USC could still play in the BCS title game. Yet at this point, Oregon is a stronger candidate than either USC or Cal. Granted, Cal did defeat Oregon 31-24 on Sept. 29, but the Ducks have blown out all of their other opponents and have to be considered the best candidate to unseat Arizona St. at the top of the Pac-10.

At least California college football fans can commiserate in beautiful weather. The Pac-10 is not the Big 12, after all....