Week 14 Recap

dp got back on track in Week 14 in a big way: He won the Flicksters' NFL picks league with a 14-2 record. (Actually, two other Flicksters went 15-1, but dp only lost four points on his misses: one for the Eagles and three for the Rams (The Cincy curse strikes again.)) dp was the only Flickster to correctly predict the Texans' triumph over the Bucs. dp also correctly predicted the exact total of 48 points for the Monday night Saints-Falcons game.

Of course, dp's two missed also happened to be two of his Flick Picks, meaning that an otherwise magical week only netted a 3-2 record in this column. Oh well.

Week 14: 3-2 (14-2 overall)
Season: 35-26 (140-68 overall)

Week 14 Flick Picks: Stubborn as an Ass

Tampa (-2.5) at Houston
Both teams are battling injuries, but it now appears that the Texans are hurting worse with QB Matt Schaub out, Ahman Green on injured reserve, Ron Dayne nursing a sore ankle, and the offensive line banged up and left with little depth. Meanwhile, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia is a game-time decision. Nonetheless, I'm hoping that Jeff Garcia is rusty and turns the ball over a bunch of times. Against better judgment, I'm sticking with my initial hunch and picking Houston.

St. Louis at Cincy (-4.5)
I'm going to stubbornly follow suit here and back the Rams even though QB Marc Bulger suffered a setback in practice Thursday and won't play. With Gus Frerotte also injured, the Rams will start third-stringer Brock Berlin. Cincy's defense is so bad that it won't matter: RB Stephen Jackson should get 25-30 carries, allowing the Rams to control the clock and open up play action for Berlin. Look for St. Louis to win a shootout 34-31.

New York (-2) at Philly
Eli Manning's perennial second-half swoon continues and the Eagles win a close one at home.

San Diego (-3) at Tennessee
The Chargers will roar past the slumping Titans and win going away, 35-13.

Cleveland (-4) at New York Jets
The Browns get back on track, while the Jets crash back to reality after blowing out Miami last week.

Unlucky Week 13: Black Cat JInx

dp frantically posted Flick Picks early Sunday morning and then, instead of settling into the sofa for a Sunday football teletrifecta, dp and lady flick fled the coop in pursuit of two (partially) black (and tan) cats. A wild kitty chase led us to the bowels of Central MA, where we rescued these two Himalayan kitties, dp's dynamic Persian duo, Samson (below right) and Delilah :

Aren't they adorable? Their only apparent downside is their subversive effect on certain NFL games. Surprise, surprise! Longhaired riddler Samson and queen of nag Delilah hexed dp's picks this day. That's right, flicksters: dp donkey punched his way to a 1-4 record in Week 14. Doh! Hey kitties!

Worse, dp went 0-3 in fantasy football this week, thanks in large part to the double whammy of Brett Favre's injury. (Not only did Favre get knocked out of a game for only the seventh time during his record 249-game (269 counting playoffs) consecutive start streak, he amassed negative fantasy points for all three of dp's X Country Packbacking fantasy squads.) dp had already locked up first place in the Koopa Troopa League, but he could have clinched playoff berths in Vick's K-9 Kennels and the peerless Empyreal Dynasty, respectively. Instead, Tony Romo's four touchdowns eliminated dp from Vick's 6-team playoff dog fight; and dp now faces a must-win Week 14 showdown with GSS's Brady-to-Moss Death Machine, the scary message-board menace and league-leading Empyrealest at 11-1, in order to assure a spot in the semifinals.

Worst, dp went 8-8 and finished second-to-last in this week's FLICK PICKS competition, plummeting him from third to ninth for the season. Another week like this, and dp's postseason fantasy hopes will lie in the (giant corporation-sponsored) Toilet Bowl.

Bonus Old Testament factoid: Sampson was so sweet that honey coated the carcass of the lion he tore apart with his bare hands (Judges 14.5-9)!

Bonus Old Testament factoid #2: The Biblical Samson once slew 1000 men with an ass's jawbone (Judges 15.15)!

Bonus factoid 3: Did you hear the Good Wuerd? The Suited Connector knows football. Value his comments highly. Meanwhile, dp vows to dig productively for Week 14 Upset Specials.

Week 13: 1-4 (8-8 overall pending Pats (-20.5) over Baltimore Monday night)
Season: 32-24 (126-66)

Week 13 Flick Picks: Articulate your Toes

Well, Dallas donkey punched da Packers 37-27 last night, defying dp's prediction of Packer dominance in Big D. dp's analysis depended in part on the strong play of two key Packers defenders, cornerback Charles Woodson and sack-happy defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Both players were listed as questionable with injuries, but unfortunately both were declared inactive just before kickoff. Clearly, Green Bay could not contain T.O. and Tony Romo without them. dp, the good doctor predictor, has been downgraded accordingly to donkey picker.

Worse, the Cowboys added further injury to insult in the second quarter, when cornerback Nathan Jones blitzed and nailed Brett Favre's throwing arm, causing an interception and knocking Favre out of the game with an injured elbow. (Favre also separated his other shoulder at some point in the game, quite possibly on the same play or perhaps during his first interception, when he unleashed a deep pass only to be crushed by Stephen Bowen.)

Thursday's game serves as a perfect example of the increasing degree of difficulty in navigating the NFL crosswinds. As the regular season wears on in December, each game's X factor keeps gettting bigger because of the unpredictability of injuries, worsening weather (witness the Miami at Philly rain-dance debacle last Monday night), and the fluctuating motivations of teams that have either been eliminated from or clinched playoff berths. While dp gambled and lost with the injury bug Thursday night, he is confident that, much like a finely tuned Yogi, he can articulate his toes to derive maximum benefit from exercising NFL Flick Picks. Indeed, the downward-phasing dog dp's Sunday predictions are still in play.

New York Jets at Miami (-1.5)
Miami nearly pulled off a huge upset at Philly last week, and the Dolphins realize this game represents their best chance to avoid a winless season. Head coach Cam Cameron feels that desperation just as acutely as his players, so look for Miami to effectively execute his game plan (a heavy dose of Jesse Chatman on the ground to control the clock and limit turnovers) and play with more passion and purpose than we'd expect from an 0-11 team.

Atlanta at St. Louis (-3)
Even though QB Marc Bulger has been ruled out with lingering symptoms from last week's concussion, the Rams will get by on the strength of a fully healthy Stephen Jackson.

Cleveland at Arizona (-1)
It seems as though the Cardinals should be able to run and shoot with the high-flying Browns, as Cleveland's "defense" couldn't stop a botttle with a cork. Yet karma tips the scales in Cleveland's favor: the Browns have given up more points than any team in the NFL, but QB Derek Anderson, WR Braylon Edwards, and TE Kellen Winslow keep making enough big plays to help the Browns win. That momentum continues here. Long-suffering Browns fan and original Flickster Eli "FJ" Shibowitz deserves as much. Cards QB Kurt Warner is likely to amass a ton of yards, but he'll find a way to lose the game in the end- even if he has fumble away the winning touchdown in his own endzone in overtime.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)
Bucs QB Jeff Garcia may play, but it won't matter. The Saints continue their playoff push by gaining ground on Tampa in the NFC South.

Denver (-3.5) at Oakland
Someone has to win, right? The Broncos still have life, while the Raiders can't steal much more than a shred of pride in this lost season.

Green Bay's Tenacious D will Stop Dallas in Big D

That's right! Pick the Packers to win and bet the moneyline! Turn your beer-brats-and-cheese change into a Packers Super Bowl Fun fund, payable Feb. 3, 2008 in Phoenix!















Yes, the Cowboys are fully loaded with weapons: Tony Romo has T.O. and Jason Witten through the air, while Marion Barber III and Julius Jones deliver gains on the ground. But Brett Favre is the master of both the slant and the bomb. He's got multiple quick-strike options deployed, including WRs Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and TE Donald Lee. RB Ryan Grant has brought toughness to the Packers' lightly regarded rushing attack, running for over 100 yards in three of the last five games and averaging 120.8 yards/game combined rushing/receiving overall. The difference in this game? Green Bay's tenacious defense. CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson will challenge T.O., Aaron Kampman and KGB will pressure Romo, and Green Bay's outstanding interior line and linebacking corps will contain Barber and Jones. Green Bay wins, 41-31.

Last week: 2-2 (11-5 overall)
Season: 31-20 (118-58 overall)

NFL Thanksgiving Pickings: dp's Poker Profit Parlay

dp killed the $1-$2 no limit hold 'em table at the Venetian Wednesday night, turning a $200 buy-in into an $851 windfall in three hours while he waited for his bro Zeke (the suited connector) to get off work. Zeke got an early out at 10 p.m., giving dp a few more hands until his big blind came up. As so often happens, dp got involved in a monster pot in his last hand, making a full house on the river to beat two flushes and more than double his stack. dp tipped the dealer ten bucks (any less and Zeke, a dealer himself, would have been embarrassed), and the p boys bounced over to the sportsbook.

To celebrate (and as added incentive to wake up before 9:30 a.m. to watch Green Bay beat Detroit, dp made two $20 bets on Turkey Day football games. First, he made a 3-leg 6-point Teaser, taking Green Bay to +3, the Jets to +21, and the Colts to - 5.5 for a potential $28 win ($48 payout). Second, he made a 4-leg parlay, taking Green Bay (-3), the Packers-Lions under (47.5), the Cowboys-Jets over (47.5), and the Colts-Falcons over (41) for a potential $200 win.

If nothing else, the added action may prevent dp from succumbing to a tryptophan coma at halftime of the Cowboys game. Check back Saturday for dp's usual Upset Specials column.

But if you're really anxious to get some action down for the weekend, here's a sneak peek at dp's early picks: Denver at Chicago (-2.5), Seattle (-3) at St. Louis, New Orleans (-1) at Carolina.

NFL Week 11 Recap

Despite going 4-1 (13-3 overall) in Week 11, dp laments the Saints' 23-10 loss to Houston. Andre Johnson returned after 7 weeks to amass 120 yards receiving and a touchdown to lead the Texans' offensive surge, which also included 89 yards rushing from Ron Dayne.
dp wants to hear the music in N'ahleans, but it's all blues as the Saints are marching out of contention.
At least everything else in the NFL world according to dp developed predictably. David Garrard played mistake-free football and led Jacksonville to a 24-17 over Chargers. Cleveland beat Baltimore in overtime 33-30 after a wild fourth quarter in which the Ravens stormed back from a 13-point deficit to seemingly win the game 30-27 after Cleveland kicker Phil Dawson's 51-yard field goal attempt as the clock expired was initially ruled no good. Officials then conferred and determined the ball had bounced off the left upright and passed over the crossbar before bouncing back in front. The Ravens had to be summoned from the locker room to return to the field to take a bitter loss. There were no miracles in Detroit, just three Jon Kitna interceptions, and the Lions fell prey to the Giants 16-10.

If you believe Jon Kitna, he, like the mightly Aslan in THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA, miraculously came back from dead earlier this year. dp is sure it won't happen again.

In weeks past, dp has occasionally come under (friendly) fire for not ranking his upset specials high on the confidence index. dp responded by boldly backing Denver for 12 points this week, enabling him to catch all but cousin (and loyal Bronco fan) Adam on Monday night when Denver exploded for four touchdowns of 40+ yards to streak past the struggling Titans 34-20. This pick leapfrogged dp past many who either picked the Jaguars or backed Denver weakly with a low rank on the confidence index. dp's finishing flourish helped him secure second place for the week in the FLICK Picks League, which moved dp to third (of 22) on the season, trailing FatherFlicker by 18 points.

Week 11: 4-1 (13-3 overall)
Season: 29-18 (107-53)

Week 11 Flick Picks

NY Giants (-2.5) at Detroit
Amazingly, Detroit opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Anyone who watched Arizona run past Detroit last week knows it will take a miracle in Motown for the Lions to devour the Giants. However Detroit has already reached its quota on divine intervention. In Week 2 against Minnesota, quarterback and Christian missionary Jon Kitna got knocked out with a concussion in the second quarter, then returned in overtime to lead the Lions to a 20-17 win. Kitna characterized his return as "a miracle." Doctor of philosphy dp says Jon's sacrifice of body (and mind?) is just medically stupid, not a true miracle like the Siamese Queens pictured here:
The miracle is simply the easy money that was out there at the beginning of the week when you could pick the Giants and still be getting points. So many gamblers did so that the line has jumped four points. New York will roar past the Lions, whose remaining schedule includes two games with Green Bay, plus Dallas and at San Diego. If 6-4 Detroit wants to make the playoffs, they better keep praying in Kitna's bible study groups.

Saints at Houston (opened even; Houston -1.5 now):
N'ahleans gets back on track in Texas.

San Diego at Jacksonville (-3)
Jacksonville will win if David Garrard plays; check the starting lineup early Sunday and pick the Chargers if he doesn't.

Cleveland (-2) at Baltimore
Cleveland is on the rise and the Ravens are spiraling down. Of their playoff hopes, quoth dp, "Nevermore."


Tennessee at Denver (-2) The line has tightened down a point or so because the Titans are a popular upset pick. Stick with Denver, still tough at home on Monday night. Titans DT Albert Haynesworth missed last week's game and Jacksonville gashed the Titans' D for 166 rushing yards. Haynesworth missed practice this week and is a game-time decision. Meanwhile, Denver looks to have improved its run defense.

Week 10 Recap: Bad As You Wanna Be

dp's disappointing performance in Week 10 predictions (2-3 record) marked his second losing week of the season (also 2-3 in Week 5).

But sometimes, like the kids say, bad is good.

Overall, dp went 6-8 in Week 10, tied with Week 4 for his worst record of the year. Yet even with this seemingly underwhelming performance, dp finished fourth (of 22) in his weekly picks league. How, you ask? Well, the answer is easy. Even though dp didn't have the gumption to predict any of the rash of upsets in Week 10 (including the Saints' loss to previously winless St. Louis, Tennessee's loss to Jacksonville, Baltimore's loss to Cincy, Indy's loss to San Diego, Kansas City's loss to Denver, Carolina's loss to Atlanta, and Washington's loss to Philly), he also didn't feel all that good in backing these prohibitive "favorites," and therefore devalued the confidence index accordingly. Granted, New Orleans was dp's lock of the week (16 points on the confidence index), which hurt, but no one else pick them to lose either, so it didn't matter too much.

dp's only consolation comes via a recent Spanish study examining rehydration after strenuous exercise.

Week 10 record: 2-3 (6-8 overall)
Season record: 25-17 (94-50 overall)

NFL Week 10 Picks

Detroit at Arizona (-1)
The early line was even, but Arizona has become a slight favorite. It may seem crazy that the 6-2 Lions are an underdog against the 3-5 Cardinals, but Detroit is only 2-2 on the road while Arizona is 2-1 at home. Additionally, the Cardinals very well may have the edge in overall talent, particularly on offense with RB Edgerrin James and WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Yet Ken Whisenhunt's Cards have folded in big spots all year long, while Rod Marinelli's Lions have overachieved and could earn him Coach of the Year honors. Detroit will find a way to steal a key road win.

Philly at Washington (-3)
If you tune into ESPN's Swami, Chris Berman, or SI's Dr. Z, Paul Zimmerman, Philly is both pundits' pick for this week's upset special. Maybe the dharma prince just doesn't want to be in doghouse (Lady FLICK is a born-and-raised Skins fan), but dp doesn't see it happening. Washington may look bad, but winning ugly is the name of the game in D.C. The Redskins will get it done.

Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami
Buffalo's sluggish offense doesn't leave much room for error, but the Bills showed last week in their win over Cincy that hey can put some points on the board against a bad defense. Miami may be coming off a bye week, but the Dolphin D is still lacking. Buffalo will grind out another W against the winless Fins.

Cincy at Baltimore (-5.5 opening line, now at -3)
Both teams sputter into this one on two-game losing streaks. Last week dp vowed to never again to back the disappointing Bungles, who sure enough gave away another winnable game to Buffalo. That's what 2-6 teams do. Chincy's nonexistent defense couldn't stop a beaker with a rubber cork. Yet Baltimore's offense is so offensive that it couldn't score sympathy from Mother Teresa. Even worse, the Ravens' only real threat, RB Willis McGahee, is questionable after suffering a concussion. So something's gotta give here. Sticking with the never-bet-on-Bengals maxim, dp reluctantly picks the Ravens.

Dallas (-1.5) at New York
In the marquee matchup of the week, the Cowboys visit the Giants, who want revenge for their Week 1 45-35 shootout loss in Big D. This one won't be as high-scoring, but the result will be the same. After Tony Romo outplays Eli Manning, look for him to make a splash in the Big Apple's club scene. What forbidden fruit will Tony taste next? He's already been linked to Carrie Underwood, Jessica Simpson, and Britney Spears....

Week 9 NFL Recap: Knowledge is Power

Despite notching a second consecutive 4-1 week, dp laments his one loss: Atlanta beat San Francisco 20-16 to prevent dp's prediction perfection.

Unfortunately, dp's defining premise for backing the 49ers was the belief that RB Frank Gore, listed as questionable on the injury report, would actually play, and play well, against the Falcons. Gore suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago against the Giants, but he played last week against the Saints, so dp figured he would be fine on Sunday. Therein lies the danger in making picks on Friday (or even Saturday). dp was dismayed to learn about an hour before kickoff that Gore was in fact inactive for the game. Unfortunately, while dp immediately wanted to flip his pick and back the Falcons, this last-minute switch was impossible because dp was stuck in traffic on his way back to New Haven from Boston, where he had traveled to catch the Celtics home opener against the Wizards on Friday. (Note to self: obtain I-phone to ensure full internet access during future road trips.)

Oh well. Detroit blew out Denver 44-7, Cleveland roared back from a 21-6 deficit to eke past Seattle 33-30 in overtime, and both Buffalo (33-21 over Cincy) and Green Bay (33-22 over Kansas City) made exciting fourth-quarter comebacks to pull out victories, which dp enjoyed watching simultaneously with the Bills backers at dp's neighborhood pub, Anna Liffey's. With friends like Gary the bartender, dp could be mistaken for that other Dude....



Week 9: 4-1 (11-3 overall)
Season: 23-14 (88-42 overall)

Week 9 Picks

Winners in Bold

Green Bay at Kansas City (-1 opening; now at -2.5: moved due to heavy action on Chiefs)
This is one of the funny games where the average fan automatically picks the Packers, while the professional gamblers back the Chiefs. Let's take a closer look at what both are thinking. First, the fans look at the Packers and see a 6-1 team that's on a roll with Brett Favre playing like the 3-time MVP of 1995-97. Meanwhile, the bettors look at the Chiefs and see a team that's playing at home, has won four of its last five games, and perhaps most significantly, has never lost to Brett Favre. In fact, KC is the only team in the NFL that Favre has yet to beat (0-3 career). Consequently, oddsmakers are begging for anyone to lay some loot on the Packers to hedge the book. dp says bet the house. This is the rare game where the conventional wisdom of the average fan is correct; simply put, the bookies are overthinking this one. The Pack is on one of those streaks where just enough happens to help them win each week, and it will continue against the Chiefs.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)
With the Falcon's release of NT Grady Jackson, Frank Gore should find lots of running room this week. The 49ers will look to use Gore often to control the clock and wear down the Atlanta D. Alex Smith can bounce back with some play action passes downfield.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1)
Cleveland could score a bunch of points and still lose with their porous defense, but they should have just enough of a cushion to hold on for the win.

Cincy at Buffalo (-3 opening; now it's a coinflip)
Well, while dp is finally giving up on the Bungles after getting burned (again) for backing them last week. It seems the rest of America is still seduced by the playmaking trio of QB Carson Palmer and WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (who has scored a touchdown in seven straight games) because heavy early week betting action on Cincy has moved the point spread a full field goal. The layman would figure that because Buffalo has gone from a 3-point favorite to a 1-point underdog in some sportsbooks, the smart money is on the Bengals, but in reality the opposite is true. Vegas oddsmakers are practically begging bettors to put some loot down on Buffalo, and dp agrees with them. Buffalo is the pick.

Denver at Detroit (-3)
Denver is still reeling from their heartbreaking home loss in OT to Green Bay on Monday night. With a short week of preparation, they won't have enough in the tank to knock off a tough Lions squad.

Week 8 NFL recap: FAVRE!!!

Brett Favre hit Greg Jennings with an 82-yard bomb on the first play of overtime to defeat the Broncos 19-13 on Monday night. After a rough second half in the loss to Chicago and a poor performance in a win over Washington where a couple of underthrown deep passes had (foolish) critics questioning his arm strength, Favre bounced back against Denver's 6th-ranked pass defense, finishing 21 for 27 with 331 yards and two touchdowns. Even better, Favre torched both of Denver's All-Pro cornerbacks: Jennings burned Dre Bly to win the game, and in the first quarter, rookie James Jones beat Champ Bailey deep with a 79-yard touchdown.

Unlike some of the NFL's other elite teams, the Packers are winning with class, too. Just listen to the humble Jennings in a post-game interview with Suzy Kolber:


Meanwhile, the Pack's win iced dp's best week yet in underdog predictions. Only dp's stubborn refusal to believe that the Bengals actually do completely suck this year prevented a perfect 5-0 mark. While Chincy bungled their way to an seventh-straight home loss against Pittsburgh, dp's road warriors all won: Philly 23-16 at Minnesota, Buffalo 13-3 at NY Jets, and New Orleans 31-10 at San Francisco, and of course Green Bay.

As if capping dp's triumphant week 8 wasn't enough, Favre's dramatic game-winning pass also gave all three of dp's X Country Packbackin fantasy squads improbable come-from-behind victories. That's right: by the end of regulation Monday night, dp trailed his opponents by less than ten points in all three matchups, only to snatch victory at literally the last possible moment.

When it was all over, dp could hardly be happier if he was a member of the Boston Red Sox.
Week 8 record: 4-1 (10-3 overall)
Season: 19-13 (77-39 overall)

NFL Week 8 PIcks: Three Dogs, a Coin Flip, and a Shot in the Dark

Examining the Week 8 schedule, dp uncovers triple dog potential. That's right: three underdogs will win outright.

In the first upset special, Cincinnati will knock off four-point favorite Pittsburgh in a high-scoring affair.

Second, the Buffalo Bills, last week's underdog darlings by defeating Baltimore, look to keep their overachieving streak alive at the Jets (-3).

Third, Green Bay travels to Denver (-3) Monday night to pile on more mile-high frustration for Colorado sports fans, who will still be reeling from the Rockies' fall from Rocktober to Rockedtober. (Just as dp predicted, it's all Soxtoberfest this fall.)

Fourth, Philly will win a coinflip at Minnesota. Even the Vegas oddsmakers can't figure this one out, as some sportsbooks have the Vikings and others have the Eagles as a one-point favorite. Either way, Philly's the pick.

Fifth, in dp's Sunday afternoon hangover shot (of Bourbon St.) in the dark, the Saints will win at San Francisco.

Short and sweet, yet packing some wallop. Just like Maker's Mark.

Week 7 NFL Recap: Perspective on the Art of Picking

Courtesy of Indy's thorough 29-7 thumping of the Jags, dp salvaged a mediocre round of picks in Week 7, going 3-3 in his bid to select six road winners. Not quite the donkey prognosticator, dp merely broke even in picking the week's toughest games.

But that's the nature of this prediction business. dp's priorities for making five or six picks each week are plain and simple:

1) Remember that dp only picks outright winners; he doesn't mess around with the point spread because he's philosophically opposed to what it represents. True competitors only care if they won or lost. For example, Green Bay is a 3-point underdog at Denver in Week 8. Suppose the Pack, trailing 28-20 with a minute left, drives down the field for a touchdown, but then fails to score the game-tying two-point conversion and loses 28-26. Well, Green Bay may have covered the spread and pleased a few heartless gamblers, but no one in the Packer locker room or any self-respecting cheesehead is happy with the loss. (By the way, as the astute reader has no doubt surmised, Green Bay over Denver will be dp's first upset special for Week 8.)

2) dp scours each week's schedule for upset specials, going against the grain to select underdogs. If he can't find five upsets, he then picks the games with the lowest point spreads and hence the most uncertainty. In fact, other than Indy's Monday night blowout, the games dp picked this week were decided by one score or less: Baltimore lost 19-14 at Buffalo (incorrect), Tampa lost 23-16 at Detroit (incorrect), Tennessee escaped with a 38-36 win at Houston (correct), Kansas City won a 12-10 squeaker at Oakland (correct), and Philly lost 31-28 at Denver (incorrect) on a last-second field goal. All of these games went down to the wire. dp could have just as easily gone 1-5 or 5-1 with a few (un)lucky breaks.

In short, dp's choices are risky business. It's easy to only back the big favorites and rack up a superficially impressive record. Actually, while dp is 15-12 (55.6% accurate) in his documented upset special and coin flip games, he's 52-24 (68.4% accurate) in all other games in 2007. But I don't bother writing about these ones because the relatively big favorites generally win.

To put dp's performance in perspective, compare his 67-36 (65% accurate) overall season record to some other benchmarks. In ESPN's weekly SportsNation poll, voters have chosen the winner 59% of the time, compiling a 61-42 record. Meanwhile, ESPN's AccuScore computer projection has picked 64 winners for 62% accuracy. Finally, of ESPN's panel of 9 NFL experts, only Mark Schlereth (69 winners picked) tops dp. With the season not yet halfway completed, we'll see where it all ends up, but dp, like original Flicksters Johnny Cash and Tom Petty, won't back down.




Week 7: 3-3 (10-4 overall)
Season: 15-12 (67-36 overall)

Week 7 Picks: Flick Six Road Warriors

dp takes the double secret dirty dog dare to pick only road winners in Week 7. Most gambling experts say this is the donkey pinning the tail on the NFL schedule, but dp, like LL below, is doing it, and doing it, and doing it well (with three road dogs). Doing it, and doing it, and doing it well (with three road faves).

That's right, dude, mark it "6." In the first frame, notch "3" slight road underdogs- Tampa Bay at Detroit, Tennessee at Houston, and Kansas City at Oakland- three winners, good as gold.

And in the second frame, mark "3" road favorites- Baltimore at Buffalo, Pittsburgh at Denver Sunday night, and Indy at Jacksonville in the game of the week Monday night- 3 more gold strikes.

To commemorate the Risky Six in Week 7, dp, he of the perpertual free High Five, is supersizing an extra 20% to produce an even 6-fingered, mutant-ninja-turtled, on-the-road-winning High Six.

So FLICKsters, be sure to flick an extra digit in your hand jives this week. That's right y'all: FLICK SIX.

NFL Week 6 Recap

Thanks to the Giants' Monday night 31-10 dismantling of the Falcons, dp turned in a season-best 4-2 mark in Week 6 picks. Granted, the Titans upset special didn't quite materialize. And the Chincinatti Bungles blew it again in Kansas City, losing 27-20 to drop to 1-4.


As Michael Vick knows, when you play with underdogs, you're bound to git bit in da butt now and again, but dp otherwise definitely proved to be downright prophetic.

dp breathed a deep sigh of relief after Charles Woodson's 57-yard scoop and score gave the Packers a 17-14 victory over the Redskins. Coming off a bye week spent dissecting 5 games of Green Bay film, the Redskins unleashed a great defensive game plan designed to stop Brett Favre. First, to prevent the efficient, quick-hitting short passes Mike McCarthy favors, the Skins rolled up cornerbacks Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, and Carlos Rogers to play tight man-to-man coverage on Packers WRs Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. With his outside options jammed at the line of scrimmage, Favre couldn't throw the quick slants, outs, and hitches the Packers have exploited for great gain all year. Second, Washington blitzed often, gambling that with Favre's receivers tied up at the snap, the 'Skins could sack him or force him to throw before anyone came open downfield. It worked about as well as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could expect, as Favre didn't have a touchdown pass and served up two interceptions. Luckily, Woodson justified his expensive contract with a single game-breaking play. Strike the Heisman, C-Wood! Take that arm, and FLICK, just let it go....



Despite Green Bay's sputtering offense, dp thinks the Pack will utilize the bye week to rest, recover, regroup, and reload. McCarthy and Favre will be able to plot some new looks and come out with a reinvigorated offense in Week 8. Tellingly, the Packers adjusted at halftime by planning to throw deep and make the Skins pay for their aggressive pass coverage. Unfortunately, safety Sean Taylor picked off Favre's deep pass on the Packers' first 3rd quarter drive. dp actually felt relatively good when Favre threw his second interception. On a counterstrike option designed to expose the 'Skins aggressive press coverage, Favre pump-faked a quick slant to Jones, who then burst to the outside past a badly burned corner. Unfortunately, rather than lasering a 20-yard line drive pass, Favre fluttered a 40-yard floater, giving Taylor enough time to move across the field to snatch his second leaping pick. dp is confident that Favre will smooth out these and other new wrinkles and rebound with a great Week 8 performance on Monday night in Denver.


New England is hotter than Gisele Bundchen on a runway in Paris after Sunday's 41-27 FLICKing of the Cowboys in Big D. With a career-best 5 TD passes against Dallas to extend his NFL-leading total to a record 21 through six games, Tom Brady is hitting his receivers like they were supermodels- that is to say, in stride with great frequency of endzone penetration.

Seriously, at 6-0 and boasting a 230-92 total point differential, Belichick's cheaters are threatening to go unbeaten this year. The only way the Pats' lovefest gets broken up is if Brady gets sacked and buried by a wild pack of steaming A-list divas. Who knows, perhaps Gisele actually will intercept Bridget's baby....
Finally, in a less photogenic game, Philly defeated the Jets 16-9 to move to 2-3 (and 9-0 in games following a bye week under Andy Reid.) dp is once again Doctor Predictor, already off and looking for five Week 7 winners.

Week 6: 4-2
Season: 12-9

NFL Week 6 Picks: Road Warriors Rule

In Week 6's second-best matchup, NFC East leader Washington visits Lambeau Field, home of NFC North leader Green Bay. Despite the fact that the inside report from Scouts, Inc. and the minds of many experts favor Washington, dp backs the Pack, a field-goal favorite at home, denying plausibly a distinct possibility of the Redskins as upset specialists.

Sunday's biggest showdown in Big D features two unbeaten teams, New England and Dallas, in what could very well be a Super Bowl sneak preview. Again, dp drives parallel to the Vegas oddsmakers, who have installed the Pats as a 6-point favorite.

Meanwhile, in this week's upset special in Tampa Bay, dp definitively predicts that the Tennessee Titans's three-pronged rushing attack of Chris Brown, LenDale White, and Vince Young will trample the favored Bucs.

Finally, dp doggedly pushes three more road warriors in Week 6, expecting Cincy to streak past Kansas City, Philly to shoot down the Jets, and the Giants to ground the Falcons.

Five road teams to win in the closest games of Week 6? Is that the sound of a donkey braying five times? No, it's just dp, laughing all the way to the bank.


Week 5 record: 11-3 (all games)
2007 Season record: 49-27 (all games)

Week 5 Fissures and Fizzles: Sports Illustrated Jinx Af-flicks dp

Well, the dharma prince isn't immune to superstition. By referencing (translation: mocking) Sports Illustrated, it seems dp contracted a mutant version of the infamous SI cover jinx, poisoning this ill-fated football weekend. dp's beloved Wisconsin Badgers lost to Illinois on Saturday, the Packers lost in Lambeau to the Bears on Sunday, and Jason Witten's final 6-yard reception Monday night allowed Toby's Business Time squad to squeak past dp's heartbroken fantasy phantoms, X-Country Packbackin. In single positive sporting moment, at least the Indians restored a bit of karmic balance by slaughtering the Yankees on Columbus Day.

Five turnovers doomed the Packers. Rookie WR James Jones lost two fumbles in Bears territory in the first quarter, but the Packers still led 17-7 at halftime. Nonetheless, dp had a bad feeling about this one even when the Packers were still up 20-10 in the third quarter. In a game that eventually ended with an end-zone interception to tie George Blanda for a record 277 (now and counting), Favre 's 1st pick, a vintage boneheaded flick to Bears MLB Brian Urlacher, stuck out like a bad sunburn as the game-changing play. The Bears reeled off 17 straight points to win 27-20, ending the Pacers' win streak and handing dp his first losing week of the year.

It's small solace that dp did pick the big upset special of the week, San Diego's 41-3 blowout at Denver. As predicted, Chargers RBs LT and Michael Turner devoured Denver's run defense. Unfortunately, New Orleans, despite outplaying Carolina in every facet of the game, couldn't score more points in order to throw off the yoke of their own SI cover jinx. Meanwhile, dp vows to never again pick anything involving Kansas City unless it's a bottle of KC Masterpiece for a barbecue with Lady Flick.

Week 5 Record: 2-3
Season Record: 8-7

Week 5 NFL Fantasies

Thanks largely to Brett Favre, the Packers are off to a 4-0 start and will win their 9th straight game (dating to last season) on Sunday night at home against the Chicago Bears, preseason favorite to repeat as NFC North Division champions. Incredibly, Dr. Z, in his preseason predictions for SI, rated Favre the 113th most valuable player in the NFL, just behind Pacman, who is suspended for the season for violating the Player Conduct policy. dp would also like to point out that Dr. Z's predicted Super Bowl teams, the Saints and the Chargers, are a combined 1-6 through Week 4. Thanks largely to Favre's outstanding play this season (he's currently the 4th best fantasy player in Yahoo leagues, behind only Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady), dp's two X-Country Packbackin squads have accumulated a combined 7-1 record in his two Yahoo fantasy leagues (okay, actually 9-3 in three leagues).

Less importantly, but more relevantly, dp throws some love towards the much-maligned Dr. Z, and picks both the Saints and the Chargers to turn their seasons around with big wins in Week 5. In dp's upset special, the Chargers win will their tough AFC West showdown at Denver. LaDainian Tomlinson will post a monster game, running circles around struggling MLB D.J. Williams. LT will break off consistent gains in piling up yardage against Denver's porous front seven, meaning that QB Phillip Rivers won't have to challenge Denver's shutdown corners Champ Bailey and Dre Bly.

Other picks: Redskins over Lions and Chiefs over Jaguars.