Although the Brewers did record their first winning season since 1992, 2007 still must be considered disappointing given that the Brew Crew spent 133 days in first place in the NL Central before ultimately falling 2 games short of the Chicago Cubs and missing the playoffs. (A small consolation for dp: with Sunday's victory over the Padres, the Brewers not only helped pave the way for Colorado to complete its incredible stretch run to secure the wild card spot, the Crew also won their 83rd game of the season, nudging just past the over-82.5-season-wins bet a former colleague placed for dp back in March.)
Steven Colbert knows brat-loving Brewers fans won't forget the Brew Crew's September blues.
With the Milwaukee Brewers' 2007 season over and nothing left to do but overeat comfort food and dwell on such a sad finish, dp, the discerning professor, hands out report cards for all the Brewers' regular players, pitchers, and principal decision makers.
STARTING LINEUP: B
The Brewers led the majors in home runs, bashing a club-record 231 bombs, yet were only 11th in runs with 804 and 21st in batting average at .262, revealing an over-reliance on the longball to score runs. The Brewers hit for power but need to do a better job in 2008 playing small ball. First, the defense, ranked 25th with .982 team fielding percentage, needs to tighten up. Second, the Brewers need to learn how to manufacture runs in low-scoring games. To do so, the Brewers need to improve their 21st rank in OBP, and exhibiting more patience at the plate is the key that can drive this development. Better pitch selection will lead both to more walks and more favorable pitches to hit when pitchers get deeper in the count. In turn, more baserunners plus a higher batting average equals more runs. If young free swingers like J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun can lead a team revolution in better pitch selection, the Brewers could join the offensive elite with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Tigers.
1. 2B Rickie Weeks: C-
Rickie deserves a lot of credit for working back into the leadoff slot and providing the Brewers with a September spark. In his last 39 games, he was arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball, as he hit 11 home runs, stole 13 bases, scored 40 runs, drew 33 walks and posted a .429 OBP. During this stretch over the final quarter of the season, Weeks hit .292 to raise his average from .206 on August 18 to .235 on September 30. Still, if it weren't for this late resurrection, Rickie would've gotten an F for the season. He hit 5 homers in April, then batted only .193 in May, June, and July. He bottomed out on July 31, when, sporting a .212 BA and in the midst of a horrible 7 for 66 slump, he was demoted to the minor leagues to work on his swing. A lingering wrist injury that ended his 2006 season may partially explain Weeks' midseason swoon. His strong closing burst in September suggests that he has finally fully recovered and could be on track for a breakthrough performance in 2008.
2. SS J.J. Hardy: B
J.J. Hardy was hot in April and May, even drawing early MVP talk back in mid-May when he briefly led the NL in homers. Through 2 months, J.J. was hitting .302 with 15 HR, 46 RBIs and a .917 OBP. He began cooling off in June, and after sustaining a back injury on June 20, Hardy was hardly the same: he hit a home run in his return 4 games later, then went on a 35-game homerless drought, finally connecting again on August 10. He did bounce back to post solid numbers in August and September and regain his role batting second in the Brewers lineup. Overall, Hardy hit .277 with 26 HRs, 80 RBIs, and 89 runs. While Hardy's struggles at the plate in June and July corresponded with the Brewers struggles to win games, dp can hardly complain about a solid comeback season in which Hardy played 151 games to dispel the notion that he's injury-prone. He's not Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins, but Hardy looks to be an above-average run producer at shortstop for a long time.
3. 3B Ryan Braun: A-
Although Colorado SS Troy Tulowitzki will warrant closer consideration now that the Rockies have furiously fought their way into the playoffs with last night's thrilling victory over San Diego in the wildcard tiebreaker, Braun should be a lock for NL Rookie of the Year. Despite not being promoted to the majors until May 25, Braun led all rookies with a .324 BA, 34 HRs, .634 SLG, and 1.004 OPS. Additionally, Braun amassed 97 RBIs, 91 runs, and 15 SBs, comparing favorably to stud fantasy third basemen like David Wright, Chipper Jones, and Miguel Cabrera. Braun even won the NL Player of the Month award for July. Still, Braun, whom Ned Yost often lifted for a defensive replacement to protect a lead in the late innings of close games, has room to improve. With 26 errors and a horrible .895 fielding percentage in 112 games at third base, Braun has to work hard this offseason to shed the derisive "E-5" nickname critics have coined. If Braun can mirror the defensive upgrade that Rickie Weeks has achieved on the other side of the infield, he will help bolster a Brewers defense that ranked 13th in the NL with a .982 fielding percentage.
4. 1B Prince Fielder: A
While Fielder's hopes of the NL MVP may go unfulfilled in light of the Brewers' playoff elimination, he nonetheless logged a positively princely 2007, becoming at 23 the youngest player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs in one year. On a young team marred by inconsistent performances, Fielder cemented the cleanup slot in a shifting lineup and consistently produced big hits all year long, finishing at .288 BA/.395 OBP/.618 SLG with 50 HRs, 119 RBIs, and 109 runs. Fielder won the NL Player of the Month Award for May, and may very well be in line for another award for September, when he hit .333 with 11 home runs and a Bonds-like 1.212 OPS. (Then again, dp wouldn't be surprised to see Colorado LF Matt Holiday, the catalyst for the Rockies' improbable playoff run, win both the September and the MVP award.) Although we have to say, "Good night, sweet Prince" for now, the sky is the limit for Fielder in 2008.
5. RF Corey Hart: B+
Corey Hart provided a real offensive boost once he earned a full-time starting role in the outfield. With 24 HRs and 23 SBs, Hart became the fifth Brewer to join the 20/20 club, and his .295 BA (an even more impressive .339 w/RISP) was the team's second-best. He hit well all over the lineup, finally settling into the 5-hole and providing good protection for Prince Fielder. Hart is also 6' 5", ridiculously good-looking, eminently lovable to fans and teammates alike, and the fastest man in Milwaukee. Add in a 22-game hit streak, a clutch September (.330 with 6 HRs and 20 RBIs), and a sweet FLICKname (forthcoming), and the future gleams bright for Corey "Bigtime" Hart.
6. LF Geoff Jenkins: C+
Jenkins, the resident grandpa of the Brew Crew with 10 years' experience in Milwaukee, provided just about what could be expected of a 33 year old who doesn't hit lefties well (.215 BA in 2007). A consummate professional, Jenkins accepted a reduced role this season, appearing in 132 games and platooning in left field, mainly against right-handed pitchers. Though Jenkins' .319 OBP was his lowest since his rookie year, he did belt 21 home runs, exactly his career average, to rise to 2nd on the Brewers' career homers leaderboard, trailing only Robin Yount. With a $9 club option on Jenkins for next year, it's unclear whether he'll be back for an 11th season in Milwaukee. With the Brewers' glut of young talent, he may be expendable enough for the club to try to trade, or even simply buyout his contract for $1 million and let him become a free agent.
7. CF Bill Hall: D
Easily the biggest disappointment for the Brewers, Hall hit only .254 with 14 home runs and 63 RBIs after hitting .270/35 HR/85 RBIs in 2006. His .OBP dropped 150 points to a pedestrian .740; he hit only .227 after the all-star break; and by season's end he wasn't even a full-time starter, platooning in the outfield and hitting 7th or 8th in the order. Hall did lead the Brewers in doubles with 35, but he also led them in strikeouts with 128 and finished 9th in slugging percentage, even trailing pitcher Yovani Gallardo. Hall wins dp's personal Worst Fantasy Pick Ever award, as dp, thinking he'd get a lot of lineup versatility with Hall's 2B/3B/SS/OF status, selected him in the 2nd round of the Empyreal Dynasty's draft. Hall went on to post the 706th-best fantasy performance of the season. In one small whiff of positivity, Hall did make a successful position change, transitioning from SS to CF to allow for J.J. Hardy's return, but if Hall's bat doesn't regain its pop in 2008, he may not have a spot in the lineup at all.
8. C Johnny Estrada: C-
Scheduled for arthroscopic surgery on Thursday to repair knee cartilage damaged on Sept. 22, Estrada disappointed in his first year as the Brewers' backstop. To be fair, Estrada played through a nagging hamstring strain that bothered him for months. nonetheless, dp would think that a catcher should have good knowledge of the strike zone and could theoretically differentiate balls from strikes, but Estrada proved dp wrong, managing to draw only 12 walks in 120 games. It's not like he was knocking the cover off the ball and didn't have to exhibit patience: he managed only a .278 average with 10 homers. He didn't fare very well behind the plate, either, throwing out only 11 of 84 attempted base stealers. The Brewers would benefit from a new look at catcher next year but will probably have to settle for the hope of a healthy Estrada whose improved offense compensates for his weak defense.
STARTING PITCHING: C+
Overall, the Brewers starters were decent, going 60-47 with a 4.80 ERA (8th in NL). While no one was especially good, no one was exceptionally bad, either. Ben Sheets went 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA but missed 10 starts due to injury. Jeff Suppan, signed in the offseason to be the #2 starter, was predictably average, soaking up 200+ innings to go 12-12 with a 4.62 ERA. Dave Bush was no better, going 12-10 with a 5.12 ERA. Chris Capuano struggled and had some bad luck, including a 20-game winless streak, to go 5-12 with a 5.10 ERA. Claudio Vargas managed to go 11-6 but also posted a 5.00+ ERA. Considering that the Brewers' original top three starters-Sheets, Suppan, and Capuano- went almost two months (late June to late August) without a victory, it's amazing the Brewers were able to contend for the playoffs at all. That realization alone is enough to generate optimism for a first-place finish in 2008. Combine it with Yovani Gallardo's impressive rookie campaign (9-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 17 starts), and the 2008 Brewers should pitch more like the staff that accumulated a 4.10 ERA before the all-star break.
BULLPEN: D+
Milwaukee lost a major-league leading 16 games in which they blew a lead of three runs or more. Even worse, the Brewers lost a whopping 10 games during August and September in which they held a lead entering the 7th inning. (To be fair, they did manage to win four games after trailing in the 7th inning. Still, a 4-10 record in comeback situations isn't the mark of the playoff team. Had the Brewers simply gone 7-7 in these games, they would have surpassed the Cubs.) Unquestionably, the bulk of the blame for these self-induced defeats lies in the Brewers' faltering bullpen, which, ironically, was once lauded as a lockdown, airtight force earlier in the season. Indeed, other than closer Chad Cordero, who posted a 2.98 ERA, a .213 BAA, and 86 Ks in 63.1 IP while converting 44 of 51 save opportunities, every key Brewer reliever struggled down the stretch. After breaking Pedro Lopez's jaw with a pitch on July 26, 7th inning setup man Matt Wise fell apart, posting a 9.00 ERA in August and September. Derrick Turnbow, normally the 8th inning link to Cordero, blew up for a 9.35 ERA in September. Scott Linebrink, acquired in late July from San Diego, gave up 14 runs (10 earned) in 23.1 innings in August and September. Ned Yost didn't have any reliable relief options in close games, so it's hard to totally blame him for the Brewers' slew of come-from-ahead losses.
MANAGEMENT: B-
Understandably, manager Ned Yost hasn't escaped criticism for his perceived contributions to the Brewers' fall from first. Owner John Attanasio gave Ned a vote of confidence last Tuesday, but Yost has taken a lot of heat from the media for his constant lineup changes, among other things. Yet part of the reason he’s shuffled the lineup so much lies in the fact that many Brewers, as noted above, have had inconsistent years. Both Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin value stability and continuity, so Yost's post looks to be safe for another year. Meanwhile, Melvin had a mediocre year in terms of his personnel moves. Melvin's big in-season trade, obtaining RHP Scott Linebrink from the Padres to bolster the bullpen, didn't really work out. In terms of the free agents he signed, the picture is still underwhelming. Johnny Estrada underperformed and now requires surgery, while Jeff Suppan, a dependable starter to be sure, isn't really worth $65 million.
Yet in terms of finances, Attanasio cashed in this year as the Brewers set a new attendance record, attracting 2.8 million fans to Miller Park. Additionally, with increased corporate sponsorship brought about by the team's success, the Brewers may even be able to increase a $68 million payroll a bit further to add a missing piece or two.
2008 OUTLOOK
If only the Brewers can stop hemorrhaging runs after the sixth inning (they were outscored by 65 runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings), reaching the playoffs seems a realistic goal for 2008.
Be sure to check the FLICKsport Rap frequently for dp's Brew Crew updates throughout the offseason.
