Well, call dp the decisive prophet, the definitive predictor, the dead-on probabilitator. Delivering dp's upset special, Brett Favre connected with Greg Jennings for a 57-yard touchdown with 2:03 left to lead the Packers to a thrilling 4th-quarter comeback victory against the Chargers. In the process, Favre tied Dan Marino's career passing TDs record.
After the game, Favre said, "To be totally honest with you, I am so glad we won that I could care less about that record."
In any case, Favre certainly hit 420 career passing TDs in style. Just as dp predicted, Jennings' return from injury to the lineup provided a clutch boost to the Packers' passing attack, as Jennings hauled in Favre's perfectly thrown slant in full stride and streaked through the secondary untouched for the go-ahead score.
After San Diego's ensuing comeback bid died when MLB Nick Barnett interceped Philip Rivers and returned it all the way down to the 2, Favre had a chance to pass for the record, yet he went so far as to request that McCarthy call a safer run. Rookie RB Brandon Jackson powered in two running plays later for his first career TD.
Favre called for the run despite a ridiculous 47-11 pass/run playcalling disparity up until that point in the game. While Favre was nearly flawless, going 28-45 for 369 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs to notch his 38th career 4th quarter comeback victory (extending his own record), the Packers continue to struggle running the ball, having averaged only 57 yards per game on the ground through three games.
Though it hardly seemed to be the case today, Favre admitted that such a blatant imbalance can make it tougher to pass successfully.
"It does make it more difficult not only when teams know you're going to pass, but also see a[n empty] set with nobody in the backfield," he said, perhaps in reference to a potentially devastating moment midway through the fourth quarter with the Packers trailing 21-17. Facing a 4th and goal attempt from the 1, the Pack lined up with 5 receivers and Favre alone in the backfield. Favre threw an incomplete pass, the Packers turned the ball over on downs, and victory seemed to be in San Diego's hands. Exhibiting classic 20/20 hindsight, dp disagreed with Mike McCarthy's playcalling blunder, thinking the Pack should perhaps have run the ball, or at least not lined up in the shotgun with no backs to throw an obvious and ultimately incomplete pass.
But at the end of the game, with the comeback win all but assured, dp thought McCarthy should have given Favre a chance to break the record at home in front of the Lambeau faithful.
Although Favre later said he couldn't believe he was saying so, it was of course the right move to run the ball and thus the clock at the end of the game. Tellingly, this decision meshes with a winning philosophy embodied by a more important career record which Favre already holds: the most victories ever by a starting QB. Having broken John Elway's record last week at the Giants, Favre extended it this week to an even 150 wins.
And so the Pack is back, off to a surprising 3-0 start, among the league's unbeaten elite like New England, Indy, the Steelers, and the Cowboys, who, as per dp's prediction, defeated Chicago in the Sunday night game. dp also correctly called Seattle's dramatic last-second defeat of Cincy.
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While reveling in the glory of (documented clairvoyance and) the Pack's 3-0 start, dp nonetheless grudgingly acknowledges that perhaps the Vegas oddsmakers may occasionally know what they're doing, as dp's second big upset pick failed to materialize. Although the Dolphins' comeback bid ended when the Jets recovered a last-second onside kick to preserve their 31-28 victory (and exactly cover the spread), dp's predictions for individual performance again rang true. Indeed, Ronnie Brown turned in a spectacular game, amassing 112 yards, 2 TDs and a two-point conversion rushing, plus another TD and 99 yards receiving. In the end, dp was off just a hair, as the Dolphins did just enough to not win.
Granted, as the Desert Rat so cleverly pointed out, dp, the so-called dopey predictor, totally blew it in backing the Rams, who lost decisively to the Bucs, 24-3. Looking back, it's clear dp, the former English teacher, simply didn't think this one through; in fact, he didn't even attach a verb to the Rams' proposed victory: where Seattle did indeed "sneak" past Cincy 24-21, and them 'Boys did thoroughly "beat" da Bears 27-10, the Rams did in fact "over" the Bucs in any number of categories, including time of possession, punting average, and interceptions- just not in points scored. The FLICKsport Rap sincerely apologizes for both the vague diction and the confusing unparallel construction of the prediction.
Regardless, the business of picking underdogs isn't for the narrow-nosed: you're going to get punched in the face once in a while.
Throughout this 2007 season, dp will go out on a limb to offer the underdog pick(s) that no one else has the guts or vision to make. FLICK pertains only to winners, and dp certainly knows to just let it (the point spread, in this case) go, so dp will only offer up picks for each week's hardest-to-call, gambler's nightmare, coinflip games. In other words, dp will leave the "experts" to pad their artificial W/L records by picking obvious favorites.
Then again, dp isn't even the best handicapper in the family. My dad, aka papa pistol, and my brother zeke, aka the Suited Connector, went 1-2 (out of 22 distinguished hippies, sports executives, dads, preppies, teachers, cousins, yuppies, and FLICKsters, among others) for the 2nd consecutive week in our NFL picks pool, this time with zekey taking top honors. Hey fellas, got any insights for Week 4?
dp's Week 3 record: 3-2
Season record: 3-2
