Week 9 Picks

Winners in Bold

Green Bay at Kansas City (-1 opening; now at -2.5: moved due to heavy action on Chiefs)
This is one of the funny games where the average fan automatically picks the Packers, while the professional gamblers back the Chiefs. Let's take a closer look at what both are thinking. First, the fans look at the Packers and see a 6-1 team that's on a roll with Brett Favre playing like the 3-time MVP of 1995-97. Meanwhile, the bettors look at the Chiefs and see a team that's playing at home, has won four of its last five games, and perhaps most significantly, has never lost to Brett Favre. In fact, KC is the only team in the NFL that Favre has yet to beat (0-3 career). Consequently, oddsmakers are begging for anyone to lay some loot on the Packers to hedge the book. dp says bet the house. This is the rare game where the conventional wisdom of the average fan is correct; simply put, the bookies are overthinking this one. The Pack is on one of those streaks where just enough happens to help them win each week, and it will continue against the Chiefs.

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3)
With the Falcon's release of NT Grady Jackson, Frank Gore should find lots of running room this week. The 49ers will look to use Gore often to control the clock and wear down the Atlanta D. Alex Smith can bounce back with some play action passes downfield.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1)
Cleveland could score a bunch of points and still lose with their porous defense, but they should have just enough of a cushion to hold on for the win.

Cincy at Buffalo (-3 opening; now it's a coinflip)
Well, while dp is finally giving up on the Bungles after getting burned (again) for backing them last week. It seems the rest of America is still seduced by the playmaking trio of QB Carson Palmer and WRs Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (who has scored a touchdown in seven straight games) because heavy early week betting action on Cincy has moved the point spread a full field goal. The layman would figure that because Buffalo has gone from a 3-point favorite to a 1-point underdog in some sportsbooks, the smart money is on the Bengals, but in reality the opposite is true. Vegas oddsmakers are practically begging bettors to put some loot down on Buffalo, and dp agrees with them. Buffalo is the pick.

Denver at Detroit (-3)
Denver is still reeling from their heartbreaking home loss in OT to Green Bay on Monday night. With a short week of preparation, they won't have enough in the tank to knock off a tough Lions squad.

Motor Sports Gearing Up All Over the World

The popularity of motor sports all over the world is on the rise. At the highest level, this reality is reflected by the presence of four athletes from the racing domain among Forbes’ list of the top 25 earners in sports in 2007: the current Formula One champion, Finland’s Kimi Raikkonen, at No. 4 with $40 million; a retired Formula One legend, Germany’s Michael Schumacher, at No. 5 with $36 million; a Grand Prix motorcycling superstar, Italy’s Valentino Ross,i at No. 11 with $30 million; and the five-time NASCAR champion, America’s Jeff Gordon, at No. 21 with $24.5 million.

NASCAR has never been more popular, as the NEXTEL Cup Series has created a playoff-type atmosphere with its season-ending Chase for the Cup. With three races remaining in this third season of the Chase, Gordon holds a slim nine-point lead over his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson, who narrowed the gap with his eighth win of the season last Sunday in Atlanta. Even though most elite drivers like Gordon and Johnson are part of multi-car teams, many people assume auto racing to be a completely individual sport featuring drivers who are a bunch of ultra-competitive macho men. This certainly seems to be a valid conclusion, especially in light of the ongoing feud between Roush Fenway Racing teammates Carl Edwards (currently fourth in the Chase) and Matt Kenseth (eleventh). After the finish of the Oct. 21 Subway 500 at Martinsville, an irate Edwards physically confronted Kenseth in an infamous scene that has been replayed hundreds of thousands of times by YouTube viewers. NASCAR’s culture simply doesn’t allow for backing down on or off the track, but this kind of scary excitement doesn’t say much for sportsmanship or teamwork. Check out hotheaded Edwards despicable display below:



Yet Gordon and Johnson’s relationship offers a much more positive example for young fans. A big part of why these two are running first and second in the standings is that they actually communicate well and share information with one another in order to dominate the rest of the field. It’s refreshing to know that even at the highest level of the ultimate individual sport, there’s still room for cooperation.

Meanwhile, as NASCAR speeds toward Taft with the construction of the new track at Enos Lane and Interstate 5, the World Off Road Championship Series (WORCS) comes to Taft’s Honolulu Hills Raceway this weekend and next for the final bike and ATV races of the season. While the events will bring a lot of visitors who will boost revenues for local businesses, what’s even better is that they highlight the positive impact that motor sports enthusiasts produce for the community.

Just ask eight-year-old Kenny “Nac-Nac” Owens, currently the “Featured Rider” on taftracing.com. Kenny loves racing because he gets to compete with friends and hang out with his family at the races. Just as the community comes together to rally around more traditional sports entities like the 8-1 Taft Wildcats football team (Good luck against Arvin!), so, too, can this kind of collective spirit be found on the track.

Check out Kenny's favorite Moto superstar, Travis Pastrana completing the first double backflip in competition history at the 2006 X-Games:



Whether our children are singing and dancing on stage, chasing a ball on grass, or racing dirtbikes in mud, shouldn’t we recognize the benefits of any form of performance? As our kids develop their bodies and minds through practice, exercise, competition, and teamwork, our communities are also made stronger as we come together to witness and celebrate our shared values like dedication to a common cause, determination to face challenges and improve, and participation in something bigger than the self.

Week 8 NFL recap: FAVRE!!!

Brett Favre hit Greg Jennings with an 82-yard bomb on the first play of overtime to defeat the Broncos 19-13 on Monday night. After a rough second half in the loss to Chicago and a poor performance in a win over Washington where a couple of underthrown deep passes had (foolish) critics questioning his arm strength, Favre bounced back against Denver's 6th-ranked pass defense, finishing 21 for 27 with 331 yards and two touchdowns. Even better, Favre torched both of Denver's All-Pro cornerbacks: Jennings burned Dre Bly to win the game, and in the first quarter, rookie James Jones beat Champ Bailey deep with a 79-yard touchdown.

Unlike some of the NFL's other elite teams, the Packers are winning with class, too. Just listen to the humble Jennings in a post-game interview with Suzy Kolber:


Meanwhile, the Pack's win iced dp's best week yet in underdog predictions. Only dp's stubborn refusal to believe that the Bengals actually do completely suck this year prevented a perfect 5-0 mark. While Chincy bungled their way to an seventh-straight home loss against Pittsburgh, dp's road warriors all won: Philly 23-16 at Minnesota, Buffalo 13-3 at NY Jets, and New Orleans 31-10 at San Francisco, and of course Green Bay.

As if capping dp's triumphant week 8 wasn't enough, Favre's dramatic game-winning pass also gave all three of dp's X Country Packbackin fantasy squads improbable come-from-behind victories. That's right: by the end of regulation Monday night, dp trailed his opponents by less than ten points in all three matchups, only to snatch victory at literally the last possible moment.

When it was all over, dp could hardly be happier if he was a member of the Boston Red Sox.
Week 8 record: 4-1 (10-3 overall)
Season: 19-13 (77-39 overall)

Georgia On My Mind: Lemons, Not Peaches

Genarlow Wilson woke up this morning in his own bed to enjoy his third day of freedom since being released from prison. He spent 32 months behind bars for receiving consensual oral sex from a 15-year old sophomore girl (who admittedly instigated the act) when he was a 17-year old senior. He was finally released on Friday when the State Supreme Court ruled that his 10-year mandatory minimum sentence as a sex offender constituted cruel and unusual punishment.

Georgia's State Attorney General Thurbert Baker said he hopes Friday's ruling puts "an end to this issue as a matter of contention in the hearts and minds of concerned Georgians and others across the country who have taken such a strong interest in this case." Back in June, after a judge ruled that Wilson's punishment was cruel and unusual, Baker appealed the decision, and Wilson remained locked up. dp wishes that Friday's ruling put an end to Baker's political and legal career. Hopefully, the good people of Georgia will demand Baker's resignation.

As Wilson was losing nearly three years of his life, the man who prosecuted him, Eddie Barker, had said, "We can set aside his sentence. Legally, it's still possible for us to set aside his sentence and give him a new sentence to a lesser charge. But it's up to us. He has no control over it." In fact, the archaic law under which Wilson was prosecuted was changed in the wake of his trial, but it inexplicably wasn't applied retroactively. dp hopes that Barker's self-righteous megalomania causes his head to explode before he can bark up the wrong tree again.

Barker's boss, Douglas County District Attorney David McDade, said he disagreed with the Supreme Court's decision, but he respects the court "as the final arbiter." dp does not respect McDade, considering him a disgrace to the notion of justice and a menace to Douglas County society.

Meanwhile, Wilson refuses to criticize these madmen who have conspired to make his life a living hell. dp hopes that the former football star, homecoming king, and honor student can reclaim his once-promising potential. Go get 'em, Genarlow. At 5' 9" and 170 pounds, you're a much bigger man than any of the fatcats in Georgia's judicial and legislative branches ever will be.

NFL Week 8 PIcks: Three Dogs, a Coin Flip, and a Shot in the Dark

Examining the Week 8 schedule, dp uncovers triple dog potential. That's right: three underdogs will win outright.

In the first upset special, Cincinnati will knock off four-point favorite Pittsburgh in a high-scoring affair.

Second, the Buffalo Bills, last week's underdog darlings by defeating Baltimore, look to keep their overachieving streak alive at the Jets (-3).

Third, Green Bay travels to Denver (-3) Monday night to pile on more mile-high frustration for Colorado sports fans, who will still be reeling from the Rockies' fall from Rocktober to Rockedtober. (Just as dp predicted, it's all Soxtoberfest this fall.)

Fourth, Philly will win a coinflip at Minnesota. Even the Vegas oddsmakers can't figure this one out, as some sportsbooks have the Vikings and others have the Eagles as a one-point favorite. Either way, Philly's the pick.

Fifth, in dp's Sunday afternoon hangover shot (of Bourbon St.) in the dark, the Saints will win at San Francisco.

Short and sweet, yet packing some wallop. Just like Maker's Mark.

dp's 2007 National League Awards

National League MVP- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies:

Many voters will cry foul and demand that the MVP has to be Rockies left fielder Matt Holliday or Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder. Prince held the Brewers together through every stretch, good and bad, throughout the season, bashing 50 home runs from his cleanup slot. He was clutch when it mattered most: in September, he hit .333 with 11 home runs and a sick 1.211 OPS. But the Brew Crew's playoff hopes went down like Bernie Brewer on the beer slide, with Fielder's MVP chances evaporating like foamy suds in the splash. Meanwhile, Holliday had an even bigger month, hitting .367 with 12 bombs, 30 RBIs, and a 1.244 OPS to ignite Colorado's improbable 14-1 finishing kick to win the wild card (and eventually get to the World Series.) Additionally, Holliday lead the league in batting average and runs batted in. Rollins didn't even hit .300 or knock in 100 runs (though he was close at .296 and 94 RBIs.) But before you cry bloody murder, consider this: first, Holliday benefited from the most pronounced home-field advantage in baseball. At Coors Field, he hit .376 with 25 HR, 82 RBIs, and 1.157 OPS. Away from the hitter's paradise, he managed only .301 with 11 HR, 55 RBIs, and .866 OPS. It's like he was A-Rod at home and Jeter on the road. dp's MVP should get it done consistently everywhere. Second, Rollins had an unbelievable season: he played all 162 games at the premium position of shortstop, hit 30 homers, stole 41 bases and scored a league-leading 139 runs. Additionally, he ripped 88 extra-base hits, more than any shortstop in any season ever other than Alex Rodriguez's 91 in 1996. Third, Rollins literally willed the Phillies into the playoffs, brashly proclaiming back in spring training that Philly would win the NL East. Everyone laughed at him, as the Phillies didn't spend a single day alone in first place this year- until the final days of the season, when they capped the latest, greatest comeback in baseball history to beat out the Mets, whom they trailed by seven games on Sept. 12. The boldness to think big, the audacity to ignore probability, the will to get it done.... That's Jimmy Rollins, the National League MVP.

NL Cy Young- Jake Peavy, Padres:

Despite getting knocked around in the tiebreaker with Colorado, Peavy dominated the NL all year, winning the league's pitching Triple Crown with league-leading totals of 19 wins, 240 strikeouts, and a 2.54 ERA. Peavy was far and away the stingiest starter in the bigs, as his ERA undercut his closest competitor by almost a half of a run per nine innings. Peavy also led the majors in dominant starts (defined as 7 innings with 2 or less runs allowed and 7+ strikeouts) with 12. No other pitcher had more than 10.

NL Rookie of the Year- Ryan Braun, Brewers:

Yeah, it's tough to give it Braun, who didn't get called up to the bigs until May 25, while Troy Tulowitzi got it done all season long for a team in the World Series. It's also true that Tulowitzki plays Gold Glove defense and anchors the Rockies' infield at shortshop, while "E-5" Braun, who committed an amazing 26 errors in 112 games at third base, gets lifted for a defensive replacement in the late innings of close games. But the bottom line is pretty simple: Braun is an extraordinary offensive force, the only player in the league comparable to A-Rod, at least according to his offensive production in 2007. Only A-Rod had a higher slugging percentage than Braun's .634. He bashes the baseball all over the park, hitting for power with 34 homers and 97 RBIs and average at .324. He's also a threat on the basepaths with 15 steals and 91 runs scored. Tulowitzi, meanwhile, is statistically more comparable to another young Brewer, OF Corey Hart. Both Hart and Tulowitzki hit 24 homers; Tulowitzki had more runs, 104 to 86, and RBIs, 99 to 81; Hart hit for higher average, .295 to .291, and slugging percentage, .539 to .479. Troy, congratulations on a great year (and good luck blowing the World Series to the Sox- how many balls did the Sox hit just beyond Tulowitzki's reach in Game 1? Five? Ten?), but dp joins The Sporting News and Baseball America in naming Ryan "The Hebrew Hammer" Braun as the NL Rookie of the Year.

NL Comeback Player of the Year- Barry Bonds, Giants:

Barry could very well be indicted for perjury and tax evasion any day now, but there's no denying he's still a one-of-a-kind talent. In part due to his 132 walks in 126 games, he led the majors again in OPS at .480, 35 points ahead of David Ortiz in second place. You may say, "Wait a minute... Shouldn't Bonds have won the Comeback Player Award last year, when he hit 26 home runs after missing all but 14 games in 2005?" Yes, it is unconventional (and probably unprecedented) to honor a player whose 2007 statistics are nearly identical to his 2006 stats (.270 with 26 homers in '06, .276 with 28 homers in '07), but it's a legal miracle that Bonds even played at all in 2007, what with his personal trainer sitting in jail for refusing to disclose info about Bonds' peformance- enhancing dug (PED) use and the accompanying cloud of controversy constantly swarming around wherever his enlarged head sulked. Yet Bonds maintained both his indignant innocence and his unparalleled concentration long enough to break Hank Aaron's all-time home run record. dp's odds on Bonds returning to play baseball in 2008? About 50/50 (or the same as his chances of a criminal conviction when George Mitchell's report on PEDs in baseball comes out in the next month or two.)

NL Manager of the Year- Bob Melvin, Diamondbacks:

Thanks to Melvin's managerial magic, Arizona compiled the best record, 90-72, in the National League, despite being outscored by 20 runs for the season. Yes, Clint Hurdle deserves credit for getting the Rockies into the playoffs. Yes, Lou Piniella deserves credit for helping the Cubs overtake the Brewers to win the NL Central. Yes, it is a bit silly to even give out a manager's award considering that baseball is the most individualized of the major team sports and the players factor more heavily in deciding the outcome of games than in football or basketball. dp says don't protest, just give the flicking thing to Melvin and close the curtain on the lesser league's 2007 season. There will be no more Mountain Highs in Colorado, as the Rockies have hit rock bottom, down in a 2-0 hole to the AL (Actually Legit)'s best, the BoSox.

Week 7 NFL Recap: Perspective on the Art of Picking

Courtesy of Indy's thorough 29-7 thumping of the Jags, dp salvaged a mediocre round of picks in Week 7, going 3-3 in his bid to select six road winners. Not quite the donkey prognosticator, dp merely broke even in picking the week's toughest games.

But that's the nature of this prediction business. dp's priorities for making five or six picks each week are plain and simple:

1) Remember that dp only picks outright winners; he doesn't mess around with the point spread because he's philosophically opposed to what it represents. True competitors only care if they won or lost. For example, Green Bay is a 3-point underdog at Denver in Week 8. Suppose the Pack, trailing 28-20 with a minute left, drives down the field for a touchdown, but then fails to score the game-tying two-point conversion and loses 28-26. Well, Green Bay may have covered the spread and pleased a few heartless gamblers, but no one in the Packer locker room or any self-respecting cheesehead is happy with the loss. (By the way, as the astute reader has no doubt surmised, Green Bay over Denver will be dp's first upset special for Week 8.)

2) dp scours each week's schedule for upset specials, going against the grain to select underdogs. If he can't find five upsets, he then picks the games with the lowest point spreads and hence the most uncertainty. In fact, other than Indy's Monday night blowout, the games dp picked this week were decided by one score or less: Baltimore lost 19-14 at Buffalo (incorrect), Tampa lost 23-16 at Detroit (incorrect), Tennessee escaped with a 38-36 win at Houston (correct), Kansas City won a 12-10 squeaker at Oakland (correct), and Philly lost 31-28 at Denver (incorrect) on a last-second field goal. All of these games went down to the wire. dp could have just as easily gone 1-5 or 5-1 with a few (un)lucky breaks.

In short, dp's choices are risky business. It's easy to only back the big favorites and rack up a superficially impressive record. Actually, while dp is 15-12 (55.6% accurate) in his documented upset special and coin flip games, he's 52-24 (68.4% accurate) in all other games in 2007. But I don't bother writing about these ones because the relatively big favorites generally win.

To put dp's performance in perspective, compare his 67-36 (65% accurate) overall season record to some other benchmarks. In ESPN's weekly SportsNation poll, voters have chosen the winner 59% of the time, compiling a 61-42 record. Meanwhile, ESPN's AccuScore computer projection has picked 64 winners for 62% accuracy. Finally, of ESPN's panel of 9 NFL experts, only Mark Schlereth (69 winners picked) tops dp. With the season not yet halfway completed, we'll see where it all ends up, but dp, like original Flicksters Johnny Cash and Tom Petty, won't back down.




Week 7: 3-3 (10-4 overall)
Season: 15-12 (67-36 overall)